Abstract

The continued unimpressive performance of the Nigerian non-oil sector and the vulnerability of the external sector as demonstrated by the devastating effects of the recent global economic crisis have increased the imperative to revamp this sector in Nigeria. This study appraises the viability of the Nigerian non-oil sector in the diversification of her export and also evaluates the contribution of all the components of non-oil exports (i.e. agriculture, manufacturing, mining and entertainment) to the economic growth of the country. Using data covering the period 1981 to 2013, a dynamic framework was devised for the study in order to determine the short run and long run relationships in the analysis. Moreover, a disaggregated approach was adopted in the empirical analysis in which the effect of each component of non-oil export on its respective domestic sector growth rate was examined. In this direction, the co integration and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) technique was adopted in the analysis. The results from the study show that overall; the econometric analyses showed that non-oil export on the whole have contributed in a rather weak form to the growth of the Nigerian economy both in the short run and in the long run. These results are also the same in terms of disaggregated effects. However, the study emphasized that the agricultural export is the most active component of non-oil export in stimulating economic growth in the long run. The results showed that agricultural output is the only significant factor in the real GDP growth in the long run.

Keywords: Non-oil exports, economic growth, Nigeria