Evaluating the Effectiveness of Education In Controlling Lassa Fever Outbreaks in Nigeria: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

ABSTRACT

I proposed a deterministic model for Lassa Haemorrhagic Fever (LHF), incorporating a nonlinear force of LHF infection to account for the long-term disease dynamics. I identified a disease-free equilibrium (DFE) within this model, which our stability analysis indicates is stable when the basic reproduction number (calculated using the next generation matrix method) is below one, but unstable otherwise. Furthermore, I conducted sensitivity analyses to examine how changes in model parameters impact the system, revealing that the most sensitive parameters requiring attention from healthcare workers are the effective contact rates (βh and βr) and the rodents’ recruitment rate (Λr). Subsequently, I performed numerical simulations to validate our qualitative findings (stability and sensitivity analyses) and to explore the dynamic behavior of the model. These simulations demonstrated that the introduction of saturation leads the system to approach a DFE/LHF-Free equilibrium. Based on these qualitative analyses and numerical simulations, I recommend early intervention and treatment of Lassa Haemorrhagic Virus infection (LAHV) using Ribavirin for infected individuals, emphasizing maximum hygiene practices and periodic removal of rodents from households to reduce wild/rodent recruitment.