ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATIONS AND FORECASTING IN TIME SERIES DATA BY METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGE

ABSTRACT

The main objective of every Investor looking for a project or something of value to invest in is to generate profit. This purpose of their existence ensures their survival and growth. Many investors without prior knowledge of financial markets and the tools of forecasting have run into loses. The time series data of FOREX stock prices in USD has been subjected to analysis, with the aim of finding out how to make adequate forecasting techniques to predict the future of such markets. This work demonstrates the use of the method of moving average for the estimation and elimination of seasonal variations from the time series data of from the financial market FOREX in order to predict future values in stock in terms of prices.