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ABSTRACT
Variability in rainfall pattern has made predictability of rainfall onset and cessation difficult particularly for rain-fed agriculture.This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of the length of the growing season in Delta State, Nigeria. A sample of nine climatic data points was selected from the three different ecological zones which include the Lowland rainforest, Fresh water swamp forest and Mangrove swamp forest. Gridded daily rainfall records and raindays data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for Illah, Agbor, Ogwash-Ukwu, Uzere, Koko, Oghara, Otor-Udu, Okerenkoko and Patani for a period of forty years (1981-2021) and used for the analysis. Variation in the Length of the Growing Season was determined by applying analysis of variance (ANOVA).Post Hoc test was also used as a follow-up to the ANOVA to determine which pairwise comparison of means contributes to the overall significant difference that is observed in the variations. Linear regression model was employed in modeling the pattern of trend across distinct climatic points in ecological zones of Delta state. The analysis revealed variability in the length of the growing season in Delta state with general irregularities in rainfall onset characteristics across the climatic points with some climatic points such as Illah, Uzere and Okerenkoko experiencing early onset and others such as Patani and Koko witnessing late onset. Comparative analyses of the results also showed that Patani climatic point possessed the highest predictive power of -23.76 with a corresponding highest regression coefficient of 0.101 that explained 10.1 percent of the total variance in annual rainfall in the area. The linearized models sustained general decreasing trends across the entire study area. The calculated ANOVA value gave 3.581 and the variation was significant at a level of 0.005 confidence. Generally; the analysis showed early onset of rainfall were more focal at climatic points in the Mangrove swamp ecological point than Lowland Rain forest ecological zones. The study recommended government partnership with the concerned communities in the study area in creating dams and storm water ponds to provide alternative source of water for irrigation of crops especially in the Lowland Rainforest. Better crop species that can withstand adverse weather conditions at distinct ecological zones should be provided for farmers to boost sustainability in periodic yield per land area among others.
