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ABSTRACT
This study carried out the analysis of the climate variability scenario of Lagos in south-west Nigeria using rainfall and temperature indices. The aim of the study is to analyze climate variability using rainfall and temperature amounts in the study area for a period of 33 years.( 1980-2012). The objectives of the study is : (i). Examination of rainfall and temperature trends in Lagos metropolis.(1980-2012).(ii).Investigation of rainfall and temperature variability in Lagos metropolis between(1980-2012).(iii). Examination of the effects of rainfall and temperature variability on man’s activities,(iv).Suggestion of adaptive measures to meteorological hazards such as flood events in the study area., The rainfall and temperature records which spans over a period of 33 years(1980-2012) were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Station in Ikeja,Lagos. The data collected were grouped into annual averages and was later subjected to time series analysis to identify various trends in the rainfall and temperature regimes of the study area. Correlation analysis was used to test the relationship between each of the parameters and time (years). It was however also employed to test the relationship between rainfall and temperature pattern in the study area to determine the degree to which temperature affects rainfall in the study area. The results obtained revealed that the study area exhibited an increase in both rainfall and temperature trends. Temperature values are expected to increase by (0.027 ̊ C) per annum while rainfall values are expected to increase by (8.04)mm per annum. The runs test however revealed that a weak trend occurred in the mean annual temperature regime of the study area with a Z score of: ( Z= -2.473) with 10 runs . while the mean annual rainfall exhibited a strong trend in its regime with a Z score of (0.000) with 17 runs. The correlation analysis also shows a positive yet insignificant relationship between rainfall and temperature amounts in the study area with a correlation coefficient of (.289). It therefore resolved that climate variability is highly noticeable in the rainfall trends of the study area while it is relatively insignificant in its temperature regime as the rate of change is very minimal. Based on the result of the analysis, the following is recommended: The best available scientific information on the patterns, projections and consequences of climate variability should be widely used, together with an understanding of associated uncertainties and should lead to informed policy making that protect the environment enhances socio-economic development and ensures a sustainable future of Lagos State.
